A New Gaussian Mixture Algorithm for GMTI Tracking Under a Minimum Detectable Velocity Constraint

Published versio

The shifted Rayleigh mixture filter for bearings-only tracking of maneuvering targets

Published versio

The interpretation of discontinuous state feedback control laws as nonanticipative control strategies in differential games

Published versio

The filtering equations revisited

The problem of nonlinear filtering has engendered a surprising number of mathematical techniques for its treatment. A notable example is the change-of--probability-measure method originally introduced by Kallianpur and Striebel to derive the filtering equations and the Bayes-like formula that bears their names. More recent work, however, has generally preferred other methods. In this paper, we reconsider the change-of-measure approach to the derivation of the filtering equations and show that many of the technical conditions present in previous work can be relaxed. The filtering equations are established for general Markov signal processes that can be described by a martingale-problem formulation. Two specific applications are treated

Eurozone Membership and Foreign Direct Investment

Our aim in this chapter is to estimate the effects of European Monetary Union (EMU) membership on foreign direct investment (FDI). Previous literature on the cross-border impact of a common currency have concentrated on international trade effects. Our analysis is based on the gravity model, which has been successfully applied to explain most forms of bilateral cross-border flows. We estimate a structural gravity model using data for 34 OECD countries between 1985 and 2013 for bilateral FDI. We use a variety of econometric techniques to ensure the robustness of our findings including stock as well as flow measures of FDI and addressing selection issues. Our estimates of the impact of EMU underlines the role of FDI as a channel for benefits from deep economic integration between countries. The effect of EMU membership on FDI is estimated to be significant and positive, at around 130%

Approximating Optimal Behavioural Strategies Down to Rules-of-Thumb: Energy Reserve Changes in Pairs of Social Foragers

Functional explanations of behaviour often propose optimal strategies for organisms to follow. These ‘best’ strategies could be difficult to perform given biological constraints such as neural architecture and physiological constraints. Instead, simple heuristics or ‘rules-of-thumb’ that approximate these optimal strategies may instead be performed. From a modelling perspective, rules-of-thumb are also useful tools for considering how group behaviour is shaped by the behaviours of individuals. Using simple rules-of-thumb reduces the complexity of these models, but care needs to be taken to use rules that are biologically relevant. Here, we investigate the similarity between the outputs of a two-player dynamic foraging game (which generated optimal but complex solutions) and a computational simulation of the behaviours of the two members of a foraging pair, who instead followed a rule-of-thumb approximation of the game's output. The original game generated complex results, and we demonstrate here that the simulations following the much-simplified rules-of-thumb also generate complex results, suggesting that the rule-of-thumb was sufficient to make some of the model outcomes unpredictable. There was some agreement between both modelling techniques, but some differences arose – particularly when pair members were not identical in how they gained and lost energy. We argue that exploring how rules-of-thumb perform in comparison to their optimal counterparts is an important exercise for biologically validating the output of agent-based models of group behaviour

Detection and Molecular Characterization of 9000-Year-Old Mycobacterium tuberculosis from a Neolithic Settlement in the Eastern Mediterranean

Background: Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the principal etiologic agent of human tuberculosis. It has no environmental reservoir and is believed to have co-evolved with its host over millennia. This is supported by skeletal evidence of the disease in early humans, and inferred from M. tuberculosis genomic analysis. Direct examination of ancient human remains for M. tuberculosis biomarkers should aid our understanding of the nature of prehistoric tuberculosis and the host/pathogen relationship.Methodology/Principal Findings: We used conventional PCR to examine bone samples with typical tuberculosis lesions from a woman and infant, who were buried together in the now submerged site of Atlit-Yam in the Eastern Mediterranean, dating from 9250-8160 years ago. Rigorous precautions were taken to prevent contamination, and independent centers were used to confirm authenticity of findings. DNA from five M. tuberculosis genetic loci was detected and had characteristics consistent with extant genetic lineages. High performance liquid chromatography was used as an independent method of verification and it directly detected mycolic acid lipid biomarkers, specific for the M. tuberculosis complex.Conclusions/Significance: Human tuberculosis was confirmed by morphological and molecular methods in a population living in one of the first villages with evidence of agriculture and animal domestication. The widespread use of animals was not a source of infection but may have supported a denser human population that facilitated transmission of the tubercle bacillus. The similarity of the M. tuberculosis genetic signature with those of today gives support to the theory of a long-term co-existence of host and pathogen

IgG Responses to Anopheles gambiae Salivary Antigen gSG6 Detect Variation in Exposure to Malaria Vectors and Disease Risk

Assessment of exposure to malaria vectors is important to our understanding of spatial and temporal variations in disease transmission and facilitates the targeting and evaluation of control efforts. Recently, an immunogenic Anopheles gambiae salivary protein (gSG6) was identified and proposed as the basis of an immuno-assay determining exposure to Afrotropical malaria vectors. In the present study, IgG responses to gSG6 and 6 malaria antigens (CSP, AMA-1, MSP-1, MSP-3, GLURP R1, and GLURP R2) were compared to Anopheles exposure and malaria incidence in a cohort of children from Korogwe district, Tanzania, an area of moderate and heterogeneous malaria transmission. Anti-gSG6 responses above the threshold for seropositivity were detected in 15% (96/636) of the children, and were positively associated with geographical variations in Anopheles exposure (OR 1.25, CI 1.01–1.54, p = 0.04). Additionally, IgG responses to gSG6 in individual children showed a strong positive association with household level mosquito exposure. IgG levels for all antigens except AMA-1 were associated with the frequency of malaria episodes following sampling. gSG6 seropositivity was strongly positively associated with subsequent malaria incidence (test for trend p = 0.004), comparable to malaria antigens MSP-1 and GLURP R2. Our results show that the gSG6 assay is sensitive to micro-epidemiological variations in exposure to Anopheles mosquitoes, and provides a correlate of malaria risk that is unrelated to immune protection. While the technique requires further evaluation in a range of malaria endemic settings, our findings suggest that the gSG6 assay may have a role in the evaluation and planning of targeted and preventative anti-malaria interventions

Root morphology and seed and leaf ionomic traits in a Brassica napus L. diversity panel show wide phenotypic variation and are characteristic of crop habit

Background: Mineral nutrient uptake and utilisation by plants are controlled by many traits relating to root morphology, ion transport, sequestration and translocation. The aims of this study were to determine the phenotypic diversity in root morphology and leaf and seed mineral composition of a polyploid crop species, Brassica napus L., and how these traits relate to crop habit. Traits were quantified in a diversity panel of up to 387 genotypes: 163 winter, 127 spring, and seven semiwinter oilseed rape (OSR) habits, 35 swede, 15 winter fodder, and 40 exotic/unspecified habits. Root traits of 14 d old seedlings were measured in a ‘pouch and wick’ system (n = ~24 replicates per genotype). The mineral composition of 3–6 rosette-stage leaves, and mature seeds, was determined on compost-grown plants from a designed experiment (n = 5) by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Results: Seed size explained a large proportion of the variation in root length. Winter OSR and fodder habits had longer primary and lateral roots than spring OSR habits, with generally lower mineral concentrations. A comparison of the ratios of elements in leaf and seed parts revealed differences in translocation processes between crop habits, including those likely to be associated with crop-selection for OSR seeds with lower sulphur-containing glucosinolates. Combining root, leaf and seed traits in a discriminant analysis provided the most accurate characterisation of crop habit, illustrating the interdependence of plant tissues. Conclusions: High-throughput morphological and composition phenotyping reveals complex interrelationships between mineral acquisition and accumulation linked to genetic control within and between crop types (habits) in B. napus. Despite its recent genetic ancestry (<10 ky), root morphology, and leaf and seed composition traits could potentially be used in crop improvement, if suitable markers can be identified and if these correspond with suitable agronomy and quality traits